March Madness Upset Predictions: Best First-Round Picks for 2026
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The early-round upsets are what make March Madness one of the greatest spectacles in the sporting world.
This year’s opening round has several interesting matchups that present possible stumbling blocks for higher-seeded teams, and we’ve found two games on both Thursday and Friday that offer opportunities for Cinderella to find her glass slipper.
Here are my favorite upset predictions and March Madness picks for the first round.
Our favorite March Madness upset picks for Round 1
TeamOddsVCU moneyline+120South Florida moneyline+155Northern Iowa moneyline+350Akron moneyline+250
No. 11 VCU vs No. 6 North Carolina
South Region, Thursday @ 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT
The North Carolina Tar Heels aren’t the same without Caleb Wilson. Finding alternatives to his 19.8 points per game is difficult enough, but replacing his defense and playmaking has proven even tougher.
Before Wilson’s injury, the Tar Heels ranked in the Top 15 in turnover rate on offense. Since his injury, they rank 135th.
In addition, they have only seven players averaging 10+ minutes per game with no consistent offensive weapons off the bench.
That’s not an issue for the VCU Rams, who rank in the Top 10 in points per game off the bench with 11 players in rotation. Tyrell Ward averages 5.8 PPG despite averaging less than 15 minutes, and seven other Rams are sitting between 7.2 and 14.4 PPG.
VCU will hit enough outside shots to get the win.
No. 11 South Florida vs No. 6 Louisville
East Region, Thursday @ 1:30 p.m. ET, TNT
The loss of Mikel Brown, Jr. for the Louisville Cardinals is huge, as they’re just 3-5 vs. Quad-1 opponents without him. But it’s not the only reason the South Florida Bulls can knock off the No. 6 seed in the East Region.
One of Louisville’s biggest weaknesses has been opposing bigs who can dominate inside, and Izaiyah Nelson does just that.
The Bulls got 25 points from their big man against Alabama, and he’s averaging 15.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game overall.
Sans Brown, the Cardinals made only 12 of 50 attempts from 3-point range in the ACC Tournament.
The Bulls will have no problem with this game turning into a track meet, and an upset is very likely if it does.
Join Covers' 25K March Tourney Challenge today!No. 12 Northern Iowa vs No. 5 St. John's
East Region, Friday @ 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS
The St. John’s Red Storm should have been seeded higher, and that misplacement could cost them an early exit.
The Northern Iowa Panthers are my opening round long shot. Since the start of February, the Panthers have ranked in the Top 15 in 3-point accuracy. That’s important for a team that operates as slowly as it does. UNI is also fifth in eFG% in that span.
St. John’s hasn’t been a good perimeter shooting team all season. That’s problematic vs. a UNI pack-line defense that ranks Top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency, eFG%, and 3-point defense.
The point total is one of the lowest on the board for the opening round. St. John’s is the more athletic team, without a doubt, but in a game where points could come at a premium, execution and outside shooting will be the difference.
If the Red Storm can't dictate the tempo, they will be in serious trouble.
No. 12 Akron vs No. 5 Texas Tech
Midwest Region, Friday @ 12:40 p.m. ET, truTV
The loss of JT Toppin derailed what looked to be a Final Four-contending team in Lubbock, and the Akron Zips are a bad matchup for the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Since Toppin’s injury, the Red Raiders have seen a serious dip in paint production, FT attempts, and bench output. Their 3-point rate has increased, while their second-chance opportunities have also dropped.
If those outside shots aren’t falling, they'll be vulnerable. They managed a total of 13 offensive boards against TCU and Iowa State, and shot below 35% from deep in both games — and lost.
Akron ranks Top 10 in eFG%, and Top 15 in accuracy both inside and outside the arc. The Zips knock down FTs when they get to the line, operate at a breakneck pace, and have nine players who can provide offensive output off the bench.
If the Red Raiders go cold from deep, their season could end in a hurry.
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