Purdue Basketball: Wisconsin Preview: Stats, Analytics, Analysis

MADISON, WISCONSIN - JANUARY 17: Greg Gard head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers looks on before game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Kohl Center on January 17, 2026 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Wisconsin 2025-2026 Season

Overall Record: 13 – 16

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Big 10 Record: 5 – 13

Previous 3 Games

2/28: W – 63 – 62 vs Oregon @ Home

2/24: W – 72 – 68 vs Indiana @ Away

2/17: W – 78 – 74 vs Maryland @ Home

Personnel

Starters

Position#PlayerClassHeightWeightMinPtsRebAstPoint Guard2Nick BoydSr.6’3″177312044Shooting Guard25John BlackwellJr.6’4″203331852Small Forward7Andrew RohdeSr.6’6″19526623Power Forward32Aleksas BieliauskasFr.6’10”23518441Center31Nolan WinterJr.7’0″235311392

Bench

Position#PlayerClassHeightWeightMinPtsRebAstGuard/Wing0Braeden CarringtonSr.6’5″20018931Power Forward22Austin RappSo.6’10”23822942Center23Will GarlockFr.7’0″2437111Injury Report

Nolan Winter went down with an ankle injury in Wisconsin’s 78-45 demolition of Maryland. He’s listed as day-to-day. If he’s unable to answer the bell, look for Bieliauskas to move to center and Austin Rapp to move into the starting lineup at power forward.

Key Analytics

(Per KenPom.com – National Rank / Big 10 Rank in ())

KenPom Ranking – 25Offense

Adjusted Efficiency: 124 (18) – Big 10 Only: 118.6 (4)

Adjusted Tempo: 69.1 (91) – Big 10 Only: 67.7 (3)

Average Possession Length: 17 (105) – Big 10 Only: 18.1 (7)

Effective Field Goal%: 54.2 (64) – Big 10 Only: 53.7 (9)

Offensive Rebound%: 29.7 (214) – Big 10 Only: 28.8 (6)

Three Point%: 35.7 (80) – Big 10 Only: 32.8 (8)

Two Point %: 54.9 (61) – Big 10 Only: 54.2 (10)

Defense

Adjusted Efficiency: 102.1 (48) – Big 10 Only: 112.3 (9)

Adjusted Tempo: 69.1 (91) – Big 10 Only: 67.7 (3)

Average Possession Length: 17 (105) – Big 10 Only: 18.1 (7)

Effective Field Goal%: 54.2 (64) – Big 10 Only: 53.6 (12)

Offensive Rebound%: 29.7 (214) – Big 10 Only: 34.9 (18)

Three Point%: 35.7 (80) – Big 10 Only: 32.8 (8)

Two Point %: 54.9 (61) – Big 10 Only: 54.2 (10)

Key for Purdue

Pride

I usually find a stat mismatch that favors Purdue in this section, but I feel like this is a “throw the stats out the window” type of game. The Boilermakers have rolled over at home against the top of the Big 10 this season. Needless to say, that’s surprising for a group of battle-tested seniors who started the season with National Championship aspirations.

The “Big 3” has turned into “maybe one of the three show up?” for Purdue.

Their last home win was a 93-64 beatdown of the Hoosiers, where Braden, Trey, and Fletcher all played up to their preseason expectations, and the game was never in doubt. That’s what I’m looking for in their last game in Mackey. Things haven’t gone the way we hoped this season, but a win against Wisconsin would give the Boilermakers some much-needed momentum heading into the Big 10 Tournament.

If all three Purdue seniors show up, this game shouldn’t be close, especially considering….

Nolan Winter

If Winter can’t go, or is significantly hindered by a bum ankle, it’s going to be tough sledding for the Badgers today. As a veteran ankle sprainer, I wouldn’t be super optimistic about his chances of being anywhere close to 100%, he’s in the “oh man, this thing is throbbing, swollen, and purple” part of the recovery process. Throw in the fact that Wisconsin has the Big 10 tournament looming, and I’m doubtful that the Wisconsin big man plays in this game.

The Battle of the Backcourt

Nick Boyd and John Blackwell have been outstanding this season. That’s not great for a Purdue team with only one guard capable/interested in playing defense. CJ Cox will probably have to guard Blackwell because he’s too strong for Braden or Fletcher off the bounce. That, I assume, leaves Braden on Nick Boyd, and that should give everyone some indigestion. At the very least, Purdue’s senior guard needs to match Boyd’s point production because, based on all available data, he’s going to get into the lane at will and torture the Boilermakers.

Predictions

KenPom

Purdue: 83

Wisconsin: 75

Drew

Purdue: Don’t know

Wisconsin: Prefer not to say

Looking Into My Crystal Ball

I smashed my crystal ball after the Ohio State loss. As I said above, I’d like to think that Purdue’s seniors show up today and give the home crowd a show in their last home game. That’s certainly one of the scenarios that could play out today, and it’s the one I’ll be hoping for.

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